Why attend Modelling World?
We are once again at a critical time in modelling history...
The Department for Transport's Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Analyst recently announced areas of research interest for 2023. One priority is 'reducing environmental impacts, tackling climate change, improving air quality, biodiversity and ensuring the transport system adapts to be resilient to the effects of climate change'.
The rapid development of modelling capability and tools leaves modellers well placed to help the DfT deliver on these aims.
At the same time, the evolution of new travel, social and economic trends has given the data and modelling community many opportunities – as well as new challenges – as it gets to grips with current uncertainties.
Modelling World 2023 brings together UK and European experts – with a few international provocateurs thrown in – to meet, network, discuss and debate the way forward in an independent, convivial and professional space.
2nd November programme
Ground Floor Foyer
Registration opens. Delegates collect badges and network with refreshments
Open Source tools
Led by Dustin Carlino, Research Associate, Urban Analytics, Alan Turing Institute and founder, A/B Street
Robin Lovelace and Hussein Mahfouz, ITS Leeds
Crispin Cooper, School of Computer Science & Informatics, Cardiff University
Pedro Camargo, Transport scientist & Open Source developer
Anastassia Vybornova, NEtwoRks, Data, and Society, IT University of Copenhagen
Ben Taylor, Senior Developer, Transport for the North and Isaac Scott, Analyst, Transport for the North
Ground Floor Foyer
Afternoon Break. Delegates network with refreshments
AI and ML: progress for transport modelling?
Chair, Nick Benbow, Sector Director, International, SYSTRA
Fusing mobility data and gradient-based optimisation with machine learning
Ferran Torrent, Data science lead, Aimsun
Machine Learning (ML) models
Luis Willumsen, Managing Partner, Nommon Solutions and Technologies
The future of prediction
Shaleen Srivastava, CEO, Goleyo, and Committee Member, Standing Committee on Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing Applications, Transportation Research Board (TRB)
AI and Air Quality modelling
Mehdi Hosseini Moghadam, AI Specialist & Data Scientist, Agilysis
How can we use AI in modelling?
Jan Zill, Consultant, Transportation Systems and Mobility Consultant, Argonne National Laboratory, USA
You learn something new every day: traffic management in real-time
Laurence Chittock, Associate, PTV
Networking drinks reception
Kevin Lumsden, Director of Transport Modelling, Stantec
The three-course dinner and reception give speakers, delegates, sponsors and exhibitors a unique opportunity to meet, network and catch-up in an informal and social environment
Dinner and Day 1 Close
3 November programme
Registration opens: Morning networking and refreshments served
Scenario modelling – Common Analytical Scenarios and applications of scenario modelling
Facilitated by Tom van Vuren, Strategic Consulting Partner, Amey, Policy Director, Transport Planning Society and Visiting Professor, Transport Studies, University of Leeds
Liz Jacobs, Deputy Director, Transport Appraisal and Strategic Modelling, Department for Transport
Stephen Cragg, Head of Appraisal and Model Development, Transport Scotland
Stefan Trinder, Public Transport Analysis Manager and Laura Putt, Principal Transport Planner, Transport for London
Daniel Fisher, Appraisal and Analysis Manager, Transport for Greater Manchester
Followed by Q and A
Morning Break: Refreshments served in the exhibition area.
Workshop: alternative model forms to inform decision-making
Led by Helen Bowkett, Senior Technical Director, Arcadis and Member, DfT Joint Analysis Development Panel
Agent based modelling to look at road user charging in Northern Ireland and an AgBM tool for policy making for Transport for the East of England
Nick Bec and Theodore Chatziioannou, Arup City Lab
Downscaling on modelling a demand rapid transit system
Grace Kagho, Research Assistant / Doctoral Student, ETH Zürich
AgBM for infrastructure modelling
Liz Varga, Professor of Complex Systems, University College London
An activity-based model for optioneering in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
Lou Mason-Walsh, Transport Modelling Manager, Cambridgeshire County Council, and Laurence Chittock, Associate, PTV
Please Sir, I don't have an ABM
Tim Price, Demand Forecasting Manager, Transport for London
Followed by Q and A
Luis Willumsen, Managing Partner, Nommon Solutions and Technologies, will join the panel
Modelling active travel
Tools and methods for structured and analogous active travel analysis
Chair: Patrizia Franco, Lead Demand Modeller, Connected Places Catapult
Modelling active modes
Ian Burden, Projects Director and Neil Raha, Projects Director, SYSTRA
Integrating detailed Active Travel modelling into an existing 4-Stage model
Grace Solsby, Principal Consultant, City Science and Emily Gay, Principal Transport Modeller, Transport for London
Bringing cycling modelling into the 21st century
James Woodcock, Professor of Transport, University of Cambridge and Health Modelling & Corin Staves, Researcher, University of Cambridge
Modelling 15 minute cities
Csaba Kelen, Technical Director, SWECO
Followed by Q and A
Devolution of modelling & evaluation to sub-national transport bodies
Modelling and evaluation in support of levelling up
Chair: Katie Hall, Transport Planning Sector Director, SYSTRA
Richard Bradley, Head of Strategy, Midlands Connect
Sarah Valentine, Head of Analysis and Appraisal, Transport for the South East
Chris Storey, Service Manager, Transport for the North
David Simmonds, Director, Allanfield Consulting
Tom Simpson , Principal Consultant, Data Science, SYSTRA
Followed by Q and A
Session sponsored by:
Chair: Simon Bottomley, Head of Rail Modelling, Department for Transport
Modelling public transport access to rail in Great Britain
Shravan Patel, Crowding Analysis Manager, Network Rail and David Aspital, Senior Modeller, PTV Group
Fare strategies and equity in rail infrastructure appraisal
Christopher Cheyney, Model Development Lead, HS2 Ltd
Place Based Analysis in Transport: Northern Powerhouse Rail
Adam Adamson, Analyst, Transport for the North and James Hulse, Assistant Analyst, Transport for the North
Midlands Rail Assignment Network Demand and Appraisal (MiRANDA) model
Richard Mann, Integrated Transport Programme Lead, Midlands Connect and James Blythe, Projects Director, SYSTRA
Elizabeth Line: modelling mode-shifted journeys
David Warner, Public Transport Service Planning, and Hannah Donovan, Transport Modeller, Transport for London
Data and modelling for today's world: understanding the role of rail on multimodal journeys, and station catchment insights
Tim Rains, Senior data scientist & Nathan Watt, Senior sales specialist, BT Active Intelligence
Followed by Q and A
Afternoon Break: Refreshments served in the exhibition area.
Final plenary panel: Do we need new model approaches to support local authority road investment and decarbonisation ambitions?
Chair: Tom van Vuren, Strategic Consulting Partner, Amey, Policy Director, Transport Planning Society and Visiting Professor, Transport Studies, University of Leeds
Nicola Waight, Team Leader for Transport Planning Services, Hampshire County Council
Will Pedley, Transport Planning Technical Lead, Oxfordshire County Council
Matthew Page, Modelling Analyst, West Yorkshire Combined Authority
David Connolly, Director for Technical Development, Systra
Followed by Q and A
Tom Van Vuren
Strategic Business Partner, Amey & Chairman, Modelling World
Tom van Vuren is Strategic Business Partner at Amey, Visiting Professor at the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds and Policy Director at the Transport Planning Society. He has chaired Modelling World since 2006. He suggests that rather than reading his bio, you read “Why Model?" by Joshua Epstein: https://www.cs.unm.edu/~joel/cs4all/WhyModel.pdf or “Escape from Model Land” by Erica Thompson and Leonard Smith: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2019-40/ and use it in your work.
Head of Appraisal and Model Development, Transport Strategy and Analysis, Transport Scotland
Stephen is a Chartered Transport Planning Professional and Head of Appraisal and Model Development at Transport Scotland. He had wanted to be a giraffe when he grew up, but accidentally became a transport planner instead.
Managing Director, Head of Consulting, City Science
Simon is a highly experienced modeller and Chartered Transport Planning Professional, responsible for developing City Science transport services, modelling capabilities and the delivery of bespoke projects to clients. He was Project Director for the Thurrock and the Liverpool City Region Walk & Cycle Models, as well as Shropshire, St Helens, Milton Keynes and North East Lincolnshire LCWIPs.
Transport Service Planning, Transport for London
David Warner works in TfL’s Public Transport Planning Team and has over 20 years’ experience of working within the UK Transport Industry. He is an experienced passenger demand and revenue forecaster with detailed knowledge of economic and financial appraisal and rail strategy development. He was responsible for developing the business cases and demand projections for the development of the London Overground and now undertakes similar tasks for the Elizabeth line, also covering the first-year impacts monitoring.
Model Development Lead, HS2 Ltd
Chris Cheyney is the Model Development lead for High Speed Two Ltd and is responsible for the PLANET framework model. He has previously had roles developing and applying rail forecasting and appraisal guidance at the Department for Transport and Network Rail.
Principal, Allanfield Consulting
David Simmonds specializes in the analysis, forecasting and appraisal of interactions between land-use, transport and the economy. Most of his career has been spent with ME&P in the 1980s, and then with his own firm DSC from 1990. Since 2022 he has been a freelance adviser as Allanfield Consulting.
At ME&P David was responsible for a range of studies using the MEPLAN package. At DSC, he initiated the development of the DELTA package in 1995, and was responsible for many its subsequent applications and enhancements. He has appeared as an expert witness to public inquiries and to Select Committees of the Scottish and UK Parliaments.
Public Transport Analysis Manager, Transport for London
Stefan is a Transport Planner with around 20 years’ experience across various roles in the planning sphere, most recently modelling and analysis. Stefan is currently Public Transport Analysis manager at Transport for London and has been heavily involved in understanding travel behaviour change following the pandemic, uncertainty in modelling the future and use-cases to inform decision making.
Mehdi Hosseini Moghadam
Ai Specialist & data Scientist, Agilysis
Mehdi Hosseini Moghadam is an AI Specialist and Data Scientist with six years of industrial experience. As a Co-Founder of Kouventa AI from 2019 to 2022, he led research and development in Machine Learning for Chatbots and data-related projects. In 2017-2018, he worked as a Data Scientist at FAO, focusing on spatial data analysis for crop estimation using satellite imagery. Currently, at Agilysis LTD since 2022, he's an ML Engineer specializing in creating digital twins for Air Quality using geospatial data analysis and machine learning. Mehdi's career exemplifies his commitment to advancing AI and Data Science solutions for real-world challenges.
Research Associate, Urban Analytics, Alan Turing Institute and founder, A/B Street
Dustin Carlino is a software developer at the Alan Turing Institute, where he's involved with travel demand modeling and synthetic population data projects. He's the lead developer of A/B Street, an open source platform for helping people rapidly prototype and communicate ideas for reducing car use in cities by designing low-traffic neighborhoods, sketching out cycle networks, and watching traffic simulations. He's on secondment with Active Travel England, developing tools to help local councils submit plans and to help internal teams assess them. All of Dustin's work is open source and can be found at https://github.com/dabreegster.
Head of Analysis and Appraisal, Transport for the South East
Sarah is Head of Analysis and Appraisal at Transport for the South East (TfSE).
TfSE have recently published their Strategic Investment Plan (SIP) which provides a framework for investment in strategic transport infrastructure, services, and regulatory interventions across the south east in the coming three decades. Sarah led their multi-modal area studies work programme which provides the technical evidence base that underpins the SIP.
A Highway Engineer by background with extensive experience in delivering large scale transport infrastructure, Sarah now heads up a new team at TfSE, developing TfSE’s analytical capability, and working closely with partners to take forward the development and delivery of the schemes set out in the SIP.
Demand Forecasting Manager at Transport for London
Tim Price is the manager of the Demand Forecasting team at TfL and is responsible for TfL’s MoTiON transport demand model, AB-MoTiON (a proto-type activity-based model for London) and LonLUTI, which is a land-use transport interaction model. He has led the team through the transition phase from LTS to MoTiON and now in its exploration of disaggregate methods. He has been developing and applying models for 14 years both in the UK and abroad for consultancy and at TfL.
Professor of Complex Systems, University College London
Liz Varga is Professor of Complex Systems and leads the Infrastructure Systems Institute, in the Civil, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering Department, University College London (UCL)
She is on the Executive Board of the UK Collaboratorium for Research in Infrastructure and Cities (https://www.ukcric.com/) and was a co-investigator for the Data and Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure (https://dafni.ac.uk/). She teaches, writes, and advises globally on energy, transport, digital communications, water, and waste. Her key research themes are infrastructure resilience, sustainable innovation, circular engineering, and decarbonisation. Her methods include digital twins and hybrid agent-based models.
Head of Strategy, Midlands Connect
Richard has worked for Transport for the North, Transport for the South-East and now leads Midlands Connect’s Strategy & Policy Directorate.
Richard is helping improve decision making across different regional communities and geographies.
This requires ‘horizontal’ collaboration across STBs, with the Common Analytical Framework providing a consistent data architecture and evidence base.
It also requires ‘vertical’ collaboration within regions to best represent local transport user experience and to aggregate data on outcomes back to DfT.
Assistant analyst at Transport for the North
James is an assistant analyst at Transport for the North (TfN) with one year of transport related experience.
James has worked across the Place Based Analysis (PBA) and Bus Service Improvement Plan (BSIP) workstreams with TfN and is developing a tool to quantify severance as a result of TfN’s major road and rail networks.
James joined TfN after completing the data scientist development programme with Leeds Institute of Data Analytics (LIDA), looking at the potential of open-source datasets and tools for sustainable transport planning.
Transportation Model and Software Developer, VLC
Jan is a Consultant in the Transportation Systems and Mobility Group at Argonne National Laboratory in the US, where he works on the agent-based modeling platfrm POLARIS and its associated metropolitan transport models.
He enjoys both model and software development and has worked on a wide variety of transport related projects from estimating and implementing various components of trip-, tour- and activity-based demand models to implementing traffic and public transit assignment algorithms and estimating and implementing
route choice models.
He has worked with a wide variety of traditional and emergent data sources and is a maintainer of the open-source transport modeling software Aequilibrae.
Business Lead, Arup's City Modelling Lab.
Nick is the business lead for Arup’s City Modelling Lab, focusing on how Agent and Activity Based Models, innovative data sources, and other analytical techniques can help clients better solve their most pressing transport issues around multimodality, equity, and carbon. He has over 15 years experience working in data and analytics with an academic background in Maths, Computer Science, and Operational Research.
Director of Transport Modelling, Stantec
Kevin is Stantec UK Ltd’s Director of Transport Modelling. Despite his youthful looks, his career spans an incredible/enjoyable/challenging/bearable 30 years in transport modelling, and he still identifies as a 49 year old. During his career, he has spoken at 5 funerals, 6 weddings and over 15 transport conferences, but has never once posted what he ate for lunch on Linkedin.
He has been at the forefront of many local, regional and even national transport models, including uni and multi-modal models, using bespoke and specialist software, micro, meso, macro….However, he does not consider himself a pedestrian modeller, instead; a well-paced, efficient modeller.
He also prides himself in having never (yet) been sued for his forecasts.
Kevin will be delivering our pre-dinner speech entitled: Transport Modelling, WTF ?
Principal Modeller, City Science
Grace is a Principle Modeller at City Science, with a wide range of technical experience in strategic, micro-simulation and active travel models. Grace led development of the Thurrock and the Liverpool City Region Walk & Cycle Models, including extensive research into active travel behavioural decision making, to inform our active travel methodologies. She was previously seconded to the DfT to scrutinise modelling and appraisal for business cases to support major investment decisions, ensuring TAG compliancy.
Rail Modeller, Transport for London
Hannah Donovan works in TfL’s Public Transport Planning Team as a Rail Modeller. She is experienced in developing business cases, forecasting and benefits realisation, most recently for the Elizabeth Line. Hannah has a background in highway modelling both strategic and microsimulation and is currently pursuing a PhD with The Bartlett’s Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL, developing an agent-based model examining street users’ behaviours and interactions with e-scooters.
Principal Transport Modeller, PTV Group
Dr Laurence Chittock is a Principal Transport Modeller for PTV Group in the UK and is actively involved in delivering novel projects and software implementations and also provides support and training to customers. Currently, Laurence is the technical lead for the development of an activity-based model for Cambridgeshire. Prior to this, he has led on the development of a real-time model and on innovation projects such as the Charge project (chargeproject.co.uk), a study to assess the infrastructure needs and grid impacts of electric vehicles in collaboration with an electricity network operator in the UK. Prior to joining PTV 5 years ago, Laurence worked as a transport modelling consultant, helping to deliver a range of modelling and scheme appraisal projects in the West Midlands and UK. He has also background in academia and frequently shares insights and contributes to national and international conferences, including as panellist for the European Transport Conference.
Integrated Transport Programme Lead, Midlands Connect
Richard leads the development of Midlands Connect’s Rail Strategy, looking at how rail can improve links between the cities of the Midlands, driving economic growth for all, and delivering on net zero. The rail strategy is being adapted to respond to the Integrated Rail Plan, cater for more rail freight to help deliver on net zero, and deliver quicker, cheaper alternatives to electrification. His background is in railway analysis and contracting, including many years working for train operators in the Midlands.
Research Assistant / Doctoral Student, ETH Zürich
Grace Kagho is a research assistant and a doctoral candidate at the Institute of Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), ETH Zurich.
At IVT, Grace's work is focused on agent based models and their application in the field of transport planning. She works with the multi-agent transport simulation framework MATSim and has used it to model cities such Zurich, Detroit and Lagos. Her current project investigates the impact of modelling and simulation of mobility on-demand services and how different simulation settings and techniques affect key outcomes such as fleet sizing, vehicle distribution and reliability of decision-making parameters. This work has provided insights into the complex dynamics of simulating mobility on-demand transport systems.
Grace received her B.Sc. in Computer Engineering from Covenant University, Nigeria and her M.Sc. from the Tokyo Institute of Technology, where her research was focused on public transit accessibility for the elderly in Singapore and has previously worked in the industry as a technology analyst.
Senior Modeller, PTV Group
David is a Senior Modeller at PTV UK specialising in demand and public transport modelling. He has developed a number of large scale demand models and more recently have focussed mainly on agent and activity-based modelling methods He is also working on a variety of rail projects, including the development of a novel approach for the mesoscopic simulation of rail passengers within rail stations as well as building a national rail assignment model in collaboration with Network Rail.
Transport Modelling Manager
As Transport Modelling Manager for Cambridgeshire County Council Lou leads the team overseeing all modelling undertaken within Cambridgeshire to ensure consistency of approach to modelling over all schemes. Lou has a wide range of experience in transport modelling and Planning in both Consultancy and public sector
Lou is currently overseeing the development of a new strategic model covering the whole of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority area which will replace the existing suit of models available within Cambridgeshire.
Team Leader for Transport Planning Services, Hampshire County Council
Nicola leads the Transport Planning Services team at Hampshire County Council - an “in-house” consultancy delivering projects including strategic and site-specific TAs, LCWIPs, placemaking, and travel plans, for both Hampshire, and external clients.
She chairs the Fixing TAs national working group which aims to improve the outcomes of transport assessments so that they better align with Local Authority ambitions, particularly around carbon and health. She also chairs Hampshire’s Centre for Active Travel Excellence.
West Yorkshire Combined Authority
Matthew Page is a transport professional with over 20 years of experience gained in academia, consultancy and local government.
At the West Yorkshire Combined Authority, he is involved in the economic assessment of transport schemes including the interpretation of the outputs of transport models. He has a special interest in carbon assessment as part of the assurance process and the modelling challenges associated with quantifying the impact of a transport intervention in carbon terms.
Transport for the North
Isaac is an analyst at Transport for the North (TfN) with 3 years of experience in strategic modelling and transport related software development. He currently works primarily on TfN’s integrated demand and CAF suites, producing open source tools for use in the transport field.
Dan Saunders is a 16-year veteran at Basemap. specialising in their TRACC software, which is utilised to support local authorities in planning and managing access to critical locations. As Head of Products, Dan Saunders has played a pivotal role in shaping the company's innovative software and data solutions for transportation optimisation. Dan Saunders is committed to advancing geospatial technology and transforming the way we approach transportation challenges. His dedication to reliable data and innovative software has made a significant impact in the industry and has facilitated the release of key datasets such as average speed, speed limits, and public transport timetables into the public sector.
Analyst at Transport for the North
Adam Adamson is an analyst at Transport for the North and has been actively working around the fields of decarbonisation and social exclusion for just over two years.
In this time, Adam has led the technical development of rail and highway fleet and emissions modelling for TfN's decarbonisation strategy, Quantifiable Carbon Reductions (QCR), Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (EVCI) and the internal technical development of the Transport-Related Social Exclusion (TRSE) tool as part of wider work including on Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR). Adam joined TfN after completing a master's degree in theoretical physics at the University of Manchester.
Head of Rail Modelling, Department for Transport
Simon is the Head of the Rail Modelling team at the Department of Transport, he has over 15 years of experience in transport planning and modelling.
His focus has been the development and use of rail models with a focus on producing demand and revenue forecasts in the short, medium and long term. His team own and maintain many of the key models which are used to support the creation of business cases and support policy creation.
While at DfT he has also been Head of Analysis within the Covid Directorate helping lead the departmental response to Covid. He joined the DfT in 2019 from the Connected Place Catapult, and prior to that has also worked for transport consultancies, a modelling software company and events such as London 2012.
Dr Patrizia Franco
Lead Demand Modeller at Connected Places Catapult
Dr Patrizia Franco is Lead Demand Modeller at the Connected Places Catapult with almost 20 years’ work experience in Transportation Engineering, including transport planning and modelling, travel behaviour using emerging data sources.
Former Research Associate at Newcastle University, since she joined the Catapult in 2015, she delivered and led several CR&D and commercial projects for establishing new mobility concepts in urban and rural areas. Over the last five years, she has delivered a portfolio of projects for the Department for Transport, developing new methodologies for Demand agent-based modelling at large-scale, activity-based modelling using big data to explore the new mobility trends and to prioritise decarbonisation pathways for transport systems by modelling the phased adoption of electrification and alternative fuels. She is currently supporting National Highways on implementing Travel Demand Management measures.
Technical Lead, Arup's City Modelling Lab.
Theodore is the technical lead for Arup's City Modelling Lab. He has a background in transport planning and economic appraisal. As part of the City Modelling Lab, he is working towards developing agent- and activity-based approaches to simulate transport policy scenarios. His applied research focuses on demand synthesis, choice modelling, and equity assessments.